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Remember the recent tensions between Thailand and Cambodia at their border? Trump was actively involved, sending envoys and making declarations, posing as both \"world police\" and a \"peace ambassador.\" But discerning eyes saw through his intentions—it was clear he wasn't there to mediate; he was eyeing the untapped rare earth mineral reserves along the Thai-Cambodian border.
And what happened next? China stepped in, backed by Malaysia as the ASEAN chair, swiftly resolving the issue. Trump ended up with a token title of \"peace facilitator,\" gaining no substantial benefits. Could he swallow this humiliation? Naturally, his gaze shifted to another country with abundant rare earth resources and more chaotic conditions—Myanmar.
展开剩余87%This wasn't just speculation. According to recent reports from Observer Net, Trump's team had already devised two tailored plans for Myanmar, each exuding a strong \"I'm a businessman, who's afraid?\" dominance.
The first plan involved direct negotiations with Myanmar's current regime under Min Aung Hlaing. The terms were straightforward: surrender the mining rights for rare earths, and Trump would consider lifting the hefty 40% tariffs imposed on Myanmar goods.
The second plan was even bolder and more in line with Trump's unpredictable character: bypassing Naypyidaw (Myanmar's capital) and directly supporting the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the north. Deals like \"rare earths for weapons\" and \"rare earths for USD\" were proposed.
Given Trump's character, he would likely lean towards the second option. Why? Myanmar has been embroiled in civil war for years, and negotiating with the central government is cumbersome and uncertain on the international stage. Direct collaboration with local militias is crude but effective—money for goods, straight up. It's very \"Trump.\"
His urgency stems from the global \"de-Chinafication\" of rare earths; everyone wants to avoid being throttled by China.
Take Japan next door, which recently announced a major initiative. They plan to commence deep-sea rare earth mining in 2026, extracting minerals from depths of 5,500 meters. This technological feat is no small challenge. For this project, Japan has enlisted Australia's Lynas Corporation, the only company globally, besides China, with comprehensive rare earth separation technology.
Japan's foresight is impressive. As early as 2011, they discovered massive rare earth deposits near Minamitori Island. Over the past decade, they've adjusted their supply chain while collaborating with Australia, reducing their dependence on Chinese rare earths from over 90% to about 60%.
Japan's success undoubtedly revitalized Trump. Since his second term began, he's been scouring the world for mines, aiming to circumvent China's rare earth export controls. Now, he's placing his bets on Myanmar.
But is it really that simple?
Let's start with Myanmar's predicament. Who is Myanmar's most crucial economic partner? It's China. From the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor to Kyaukpyu Port and various infrastructure projects—none can function without China. If Min Aung Hlaing's government has any sense left, they won't risk offending their true neighbor and lifeline for a dubious \"empty promise\" from Trump. They can't afford a rupture in cooperation with China.
Now, consider the second plan, supporting the Kachin Independence Army. That sounds even more impractical.
Kachin State is a region of high mountains and dense forests, with highly complex terrain and barely decent roads or railways. Even if the Kachin Independence Army manages to extract rare earths, how would they transport them? Pack animals? That capacity won't suffice. Build roads? In such an environment, it's impossible to construct a transportation network capable of handling heavy trucks without an investment of billions over several years.
Moreover, Myanmar sits right next to China's \"doorstep.\" Imagine if a country were to support local separatist forces and exploit strategic resources near Alaska, how would the US react? Trump wants to play with fire at China's doorstep, aiming to secure strategic resources for making F-35 fighter jets—an exceedingly difficult task. Beijing won't sit idly; we possess ample tools and influence to thwart his plans.
Fundamentally, America's \"rare earth problem\" isn't about finding minerals.
Many may not know that the US itself has rare earth mines, like the substantial Mountain Pass in California. But the issue lies in the lack of a comprehensive industrial chain. Rare earths aren't just mined—they require immensely intricate processes of extraction, purification, refining, and processing. Currently, China alone possesses the most extensive technology and cost-effective complete industrial chain.
Therefore, Trump's recent hints about entering Myanmar seem more like a carefully calculated performance.
Meanwhile, the third round of US-China trade negotiations is underway in Stockholm, Sweden. Photos leaked from the scene are intriguing. Our Chinese delegation appears confident and smiling. In contrast, the US side, including Treasury Secretary Bennett, looks visibly uneasy.
Clearly, the US gained little advantage in previous negotiations. Despite rallying Japan and the EU, they still lack confidence in facing China's stubborn stance.
Thus, at this critical juncture, Trump's team intentionally leaked news of their \"preparedness to engage in rare earths in Myanmar\" to enhance their negotiating leverage. He's signaling, \"Don't get cocky; we have rare earth contingencies. Don't think you can use this against me.\"
This is classic commercial extortion and psychological warfare.
Unfortunately, the weight of this leverage is far too light. Whether in geopolitical reality, infrastructure backwardness, or the critical industrial chain deficiency, Trump's Myanmar plan is likely to end up as a \"basket weaving water.\"
He wants to replicate Japan's success in Myanmar but forgets Japan spent over a decade meticulously planning, whereas he seeks shortcuts.
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